Iran reveals ‘offensive’ doctrine, US issues alert: Is war imminent?
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has announced a shift to an 'offensive' military strategy, threatening to invade countries that attack it as tensions with the US escalate in the Strait of Hormuz.
The warning on Wednesday came amid escalating attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint, and uncertainty over diplomatic efforts to end the nearly eight-month war. The IRGC's announcement marks a significant departure from its previous defensive posture.
Our defence doctrine was previously defensive; we used to say that if a country attacks us, we will respond. Now we say that if a country attacks us, we will both respond and launch an offensive, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebi said.
Washington ordered some diplomatic personnel to leave Saudi Arabia amid attacks from Yemen's Houthis while US President Donald Trump has signalled that a decision on the conflict could come soon.
Military capabilities
Mohebi stressed that Iran's missile stockpile has increased 1.5 times since the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June 2025. The quality of the missiles has improved significantly, and their range, destructive power and accuracy in hitting targets have increased, the spokesman said.
Moreover, Mohebi said Iranian forces were in the stage of preparing to unveil the 'father of all bombs'. This is something new for the enemy. Meanwhile, attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continued unabated.
The IRGC's navy said on Thursday that four vessels it accused of being involved in illegal oil transfers were struck and caught fire in the northern Gulf. Three other vessels hit mines west of the strait, it added.
Before the war, one-fifth of the world's oil and natural gas supplies passed through the Strait of Hormuz. While shipments through the strait are still below those levels, oil shipments from the region returned to pre-war levels last month as exporters found alternative ways to ship out their oil and gas, including using pipelines.
However, a flurry of recent attacks in the key waterway and the fighting between Yemen's Houthis and its Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government have once again sent oil prices surging. Brent crude climbed above $110 a barrel on Thursday amid fears of further disruptions to regional energy supplies.
Strategic shift
Iran's shift towards an offensive military doctrine reflects Tehran's determination to make future US-Israeli attacks significantly more costly, according to analysts. Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Centre for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Tehran was drawing lessons from the wars of 2025 and 2026 after its previous strategy of retaliation failed to prevent repeated attacks.
Tehran now wants to establish a new equation: Any future attack on Iran will come at a much higher cost for the aggressors.
Unable to match conventional US military capabilities, Iran is increasingly relying on asymmetric warfare, including missiles, drones and its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, Mortazavi explained. She said Tehran was pursuing a broader strategy aimed at imposing military, economic and political costs on Washington, including potentially influencing the November 3 US midterm elections.
Political analyst Rami Khouri said the doctrine was also intended to ensure that the consequences of attacks extend to the US, Israel and regional countries supporting their military operations. The Iranians are actually working to try to end the colonial period, he said.
US response
Trump has offered conflicting signals about Washington's next steps. On Wednesday, he said the US was no longer negotiating with Tehran and suggested developments were imminent. We are going to have something one way or the other that'll happen fairly soon, he told reporters.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this week that reaching a peace agreement is extremely difficult and insisted that Iran must stop targeting commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The United States will not support any deal that creates a pathway for Iran to ever have a nuclear weapon, he said on Wednesday.
The US Department of State on Wednesday ordered nonemergency personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia after recent Houthi attacks. The US embassy in Riyadh has warned of further attacks while American officials told Reuters that family members could be withdrawn from other Gulf missions.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Sunday his pledge to topple Iran's government, saying it was key to preventing it from rebuilding its nuclear programme and the axis of resistance, further raising prospects of an escalation.
War prospects
Analysts warned that renewed US-Israeli attacks on Iran are increasingly possible with both sides preparing for another confrontation despite the continued possibility of diplomacy. Another round of war seems to be approaching, Mortazavi said.
Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, on Wednesday said, Everyone must know that any action against Iran comes at a cost. If diplomacy can create this understanding, we prefer diplomacy, but if the war continues, Iran has the necessary means to sustain its response.
Echoing Mortazavi, Khouri warned that another confrontation could be approaching although he said US threats might still be part of a negotiating strategy. We're probably going to get some severe attacks on a few targets that will try to make life in Iran very difficult, he said.
However, Khouri cautioned that Iran's ability to withstand another major military offensive while inflicting comparable damage on its adversaries remained uncertain. It's not clear if Iran has the ability to withstand major new assaults against it, he said, while stressing that Tehran was unlikely to surrender to military pressure.
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