Why Is Netflix Stock Down? NFLX Shares Falls 5% to Two-Year Low Near $65

The stock touched $64.10 during the session, a new 52-week low, and closed 7 cents below the $65.11 support level that had held during the July sell-off. This technical breakdown suggests the stock may be entering a new, wider trading range.

Netflix is now expected to generate about $2.7 billion in ad revenue for 2026, down from a previous goal of roughly $3 billion. The company also guided fourth-quarter revenue to $13.44 billion, which is below the $13.51 billion analysts had anticipated.

Despite the weak outlook, the company’s third-quarter results were solid. Earnings per share came in at $0.87, beating the $0.82 consensus, and revenue reached $12.87 billion, matching expectations.

Technical Breakdown

The stock is now trading below two key technical lines: the $65.11 horizontal support and the rising trend line drawn from its 2022 low. This dual breakdown opens the price zone Netflix traded in before mid-2024.

Netflix shares are 51% below their June 2025 peak of $134.09 and are currently trading under both their 50-day exponential moving average at $72.92 and their 200-day EMA at $82.61.

If the current bearish trend continues, the next levels of support are at $58.86, the August 2024 lows; $54.41, the May 2024 lows; and $48.36, the July 2023 highs.

The most extreme bearish scenario would see the stock fall to its 2022 low of $16.09, a drop of about 75% from Wednesday's close. At that level, the stock would trade at approximately 4.2 times the $3.79 per share analysts expect Netflix to earn in 2027.

Analyst Reactions

Most banks maintained their Buy ratings on Netflix but lowered their price targets. Bank of America cut its target to $90 from $105, Bernstein to $80 from $95, JPMorgan to $81 from $85, and Morgan Stanley to $77 from $80.

Needham analyst Laura Martin downgraded the stock to Hold from Buy and withdrew her $120 target. She believes Netflix's content problems are clear and expects new Chief Content Officer Peter Rice to need about two years to fix the roughly $20 billion content slate.

Martin also sees Netflix losing ground to YouTube and expects single-digit revenue growth in 2027. She anticipates material write-offs before the content slate is fixed.

The lowest published analyst targets after the report are $65 from Barclays, which cut from $70 and kept an Equal Weight rating, and $60 from Pivotal Research, whose year-end 2026 target fell $5. The median of all analyst targets is $88.26, about 36% above Wednesday's close.

Outlook and Next Steps

The breakdown is not yet confirmed. A daily close back above $65.11 would turn Wednesday's move into a false break, and a recovery above $70.45 would cancel the bearish scenario for now.

The weekly close on Friday, October 23, is the next test. A finish below $65.11 would confirm the break on a higher timeframe and put $58.86 next in line as support.