Why XRP May Retest $1 Before Its Next Major Rally: Analyst

XRP is trading at $1.33 on CoinGecko, up 2% in the last 24 hours but down 45% from its all-time high of $3.65. The digital asset lost nearly 3% over the past week and 6% over the last 30 days, putting it on a path that could see it retest the $1 level.

ChartNerd, an analyst on X, noted that XRP closed last week’s candle beneath its 20-week exponential moving average. This technical failure, the analyst warned, makes a pullback toward $1 a live possibility.

Lifeline at $1.33

The analyst sees $1.33 as a critical lifeline for the bulls. Reclaiming and holding this level would reopen a move toward $1.50, where a liquidity cluster of leveraged trades is located near $1.55. Clearing that range could point to a move toward $1.80 to $2.

A failure to regain $1.33 would weaken the case for a quick recovery. The analyst compared the current setup to 2022, when XRP bottomed, ran 90% into the 50-week EMA, and then fell back to its lows within a week or two of losing the 20-week line.

The monthly Gaussian Channel, an indicator that draws bands around long-term price trends, provides a historical frame. After earlier cycle peaks, XRP lost the upper band and returned to the middle band, which now sits at 98 cents. In this cycle, the upper band at $1.54 has capped price for three months, and XRP has not yet visited the middle line.

Market data signals caution

Exchange data offers a mixed view of investor behavior. Binance withdrawals under 10,000 XRP rose from 3% to 19.7% of outflow value between September 30 and October 20, the highest share since October 2024, according to CryptoQuant. Reserves across three major exchanges gained 120 million XRP, while spot XRP ETFs logged zero net flows on Monday.

On the XRP/BTC three-month chart, past outperformance against Bitcoin has started from a lower demand zone, while the pair has met the same horizontal resistance for six years. The analyst expects Bitcoin to take more of the spotlight in 2027.

The analyst bluntly concluded, 'I do not know what’s going to happen.' The next step for XRP is a weekly close above $1.33 to avoid a deeper retrace toward $1.