Saudi Arabia is learning the hard way: they can’t count on Trump for protection | Mohamad Bazzi

Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Mohammed bin Salman, cultivated a close relationship with Donald Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, betting that his billions in US investments would secure American military backing.

Days after Trump returned to the White House in January 2025, the crown prince pledged to expand investment and trade with the US by $600bn over four years, later promising nearly $1tn.

During a visit to Washington last November, Prince Mohammed sealed a defense cooperation agreement and signed a deal to buy dozens of F-35 stealth fighter jets, America’s most advanced warplane.

Behind this flurry of deal-making, the crown prince expected the US to defend the kingdom if it was attacked, as Washington has done in the past.

But Prince Mohammed, like other Arab petrostates who have invested billions to appease Trump, is learning a hard lesson: never count on Trump to protect you.

Trump resists Saudi pleas for strikes

Over the summer, Trump’s war against Iran rekindled a years-long conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi militia in Yemen.

As the Houthis intensified their attacks on Saudi territory and the kingdom’s Yemeni allies, the crown prince called Trump multiple times in September, urging him to launch US airstrikes.

For now, Trump has resisted appeals from Prince Mohammed to drag American forces into the Houthi-Saudi battle, a decision Middle East experts warned would lead to an unpredictable regional conflict.

The conflict escalated on 10 October when the Houthis fired a cruise missile at the international airport in the Saudi capital, Riyadh, killing at least 13 people and wounding more than 300.

Trump’s non-committal response to reporters after the attack has been particularly embarrassing for the crown prince.

Billions of dollars in Saudi investments have been directed into Kushner’s private equity firm and the president’s family business, the Trump Organization, yet Saudi Arabia is being rewarded with lukewarm US support.

US election pressure and regional risks

Trump seems worried about expanding the US role in a regional war that is deeply unpopular among Americans, including segments of his own Maga base that believed his repeated promises not to start new wars.

The Iran conflict has increased gasoline and other energy prices, driving up the US inflation rate to 3.7% in September, weeks before midterm elections where Republicans are facing widespread anger over the cost of living.

It is unclear if Trump will continue to resist launching airstrikes against the Houthis after next month’s elections, when Democrats could win control of both houses of Congress.

If the Houthis keep up their attacks on Saudi infrastructure and capture more territory held by Yemen’s Saudi-aligned government, Trump could face more pressure to intervene from the Saudis and hawkish Republicans.

The crown prince, who is reeling from the war’s impact on Saudi oil exports, could also ratchet up pressure on Trump by threatening to withhold Saudi investments in the US economy and the president’s family business.

A transactional alliance tested

Early in Trump’s first term, the Saudi leader developed a relationship with the president and his key advisers, especially Kushner.

In May 2017, Trump upended tradition and chose Saudi Arabia as the first stop of his maiden overseas trip as president.

The Saudis feted him with banquets in gilded palaces and awarded him the kingdom’s highest civilian honor, realizing that Trump craved flattery.

US intelligence agencies concluded that Prince Mohammed had ordered the 2018 assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi, but Trump protected the royal from US sanctions and pressure from Congress.

After the uproar over Khashoggi’s assassination, the prince stayed away from the US for seven years until Trump returned to office and invited him for a victory tour last November.

Beyond the extravagant welcome, Trump also held a black-tie dinner with business executives who were eager to solicit new investments from the kingdom’s sovereign wealth fund.

In the coming weeks, Trump risks expanding US involvement in a disastrous regional war to help the prince, despite the clear US interest in promoting diplomacy and de-escalating the conflict.