There is no split in MAGA

As the midterm elections approach, the Make America Great Again (MAGA) coalition is experiencing internal conflict over support for Israel's actions in Gaza, with prominent conservative figures breaking ranks with President Trump. The coalition, which helped elect Trump in 2024, remains intact but is increasingly at odds with his embrace of neoconservative policies, particularly unconditional support for Israel.

Coalition Origins

The MAGA coalition brought together diverse groups including social conservatives, pro-lifers, Christians, Muslims, Quakers, disaffected leftists, and young first-time voters who united behind Trump's promise to break with Washington establishment policies. This miraculous, ragtag, all-American patchwork discovered shared beliefs in opposing unregulated borders, thoughtless warmongering, and what they saw as ruling-class politicking that allowed figures like Jeffrey Epstein to go unpunished.

Policy Shift

Following the launch of the US-Israeli war on Iran, Trump declared I am MAGA and incorporated neoconservative ideology associated with figures like Mark Levin into the movement. This shift transformed MAGA into a blunt instrument of the same war-hungry elites the original coalition aimed to depose, according to Jones, who helped bring the coalition together in 2024.

Consequences of Alignment

The alignment with pro-Israel policies has already resulted in significant political fallout. Former Trump counterterrorism chief Joe Kent resigned over the Iran war, while former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard publicly contradicted the administration's claims about Iran's nuclear capabilities. Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and Congressman Thomas Massie faced consequences for opposing the Gaza genocide and Epstein cover-up, with Greene resigning and Massie losing his primary after a multimillion-dollar campaign against him.

Conservative activist Carrie Prejean Boller lost her seat on Trump's Religious Liberty Commission for opposing Israel's violence in Gaza. Prominent commentators including Tucker Carlson and Alex Jones, as well as podcasters like Joe Rogan and comedians Theo Von and Tim Dillon, have also condemned the administration's policies after initially supporting Trump's campaign.

Generational Divide

A Pew Research survey found that 57% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents aged 18 to 49 view Israel unfavorably, indicating a significant generational divide. Young conservatives, who were taught to distrust official narratives by the MAGA movement, are increasingly questioning the administration's support for Israel amid the Gaza conflict.

The New York Times reported that David Milstein, senior adviser to US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee and stepson of Mark Levin, allegedly suppressed embassy reporting on Israeli violence against Palestinians, including killings of Palestinian Americans. Despite these allegations, Milstein retains his position, further alienating younger conservative voters.

Future of the Movement

Jones argues that the original MAGA coalition remains strong and will destroy a Republican Party that embraces the policies the movement aimed to destroy all along. The political and cultural leaders who have broken with Trump represent a preview of the future this coalition still has ahead of it, with their eventual candidates easily recognizable to voters.

Don't be misled by talk of a 'split' in our movement, Jones concludes. When the new 'MAGA' falls, it will not be due to a disintegration of our coalition. It will be because our coalition is still going strong. And we have not yet begun to fight.