How Iran messaging highlights cost of war ahead of US midterm elections
Iran is directly targeting the American public with messages about the economic impact of the war with the United States and Israel, just ahead of crucial midterm elections.
In messages appearing aimed at American voters, Iran is highlighting the economic consequences of the war with the United States and Israel. Iranian officials have published articles in state-affiliated outlets stressing the disastrous impact on oil prices and the US economy, while Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has directly targeted US officials about rising costs and military spending.
The timing coincides with the US midterm elections on November 3, where Trump's Republican Party is fighting to retain control of Congress. The Democratic Party, which largely opposes the Iran war, is mounting a strong challenge, including in traditionally conservative areas like Texas.
Economic Impact
Ghalibaf has been particularly active on social media, sharing economic data and critical headlines. On Wednesday, he posted about inflation rising to 3.7 percent last month, accompanied by a Road Runner cartoon showing Wile E. Coyote being hit by his own misfired catapult.
In a message to US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has led sanctions against Iran, Ghalibaf wrote: "Let's 'play the percentages'. Not in odds, but in the % increases." This referred to rising inflation despite Bessent's casino-like economic metaphors.
Earlier, Ghalibaf shared an image of a ghost shaped like a bell curve, with diesel prices rising while housing affordability and consumer confidence fell. Since the war began on February 28, Iran has disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, sending energy prices soaring.
It's not necessarily that they're trying to get Democrats in power or manipulate US politics in a certain direction, other than just overall increasing the costs on this issue of the Iran war, and just playing that game of information warfare and getting out their own narrative and propaganda as well.
Record Energy Prices
The conflict has caused diesel prices to reach an all-time record of $6.33 per gallon in the US, up from less than $3 before the war. Gas prices have also risen to $4.33. The Federal Reserve was forced to raise interest rates last month despite Trump's calls for cuts to stimulate the economy.
Iran has intensified attacks on vessels in recent days after Trump claimed the Strait of Hormuz was under US control. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) directly addressed the American public in a September 29 letter, accusing Trump of lying about the war's costs and economic impact.
Countries around the world have lost their faith in the US economy. Demand for American bonds has plummeted. In fact, countries are starting to offload their US bonds. Soon, the dam will break, and the economy will implode, causing, unfortunately, great pain for Americans for many many years.
Election Implications
The midterms are seen as a potential turning point in the conflict. Trump has suggested he might either strike a deal with Iran or return to full-scale war after the vote, dismissing any electoral impact on his Iran policy.
If Democrats gain control of Congress, they could push to curb Trump's war powers, including by withholding military funding. However, Toossi noted debate within Iran about whether a Democratic victory would significantly change policy, given foreign policy hawks within the Democratic Party.
Regardless of the election outcome, Iran appears committed to increasing the political and economic costs of the conflict. I don't think they're hedging their bets either way, and I don't think it necessarily affects their overall strategy of increasing the costs regardless of whatever happens in November, Toossi said.
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