Dolar wyraźnie traci przez administrację Trumpa. Złoty w lepszej formie może jeszcze zyskać
Summary
The American dollar has weakened significantly due to President Trump's administration and positive market reception of tax reform plans, boosting the Polish zloty. The EUR/PLN pair held steady around 4.3170 zł on Thursday morning, supported by rising EUR/USD to its highest level since May. Analysts at the largest Polish bank forecast the EUR/PLN to fall to 4.31 and the USD/PLN to break its rising medium-term trend near 3.69 zł. The currency's strength is driven by a confluence of global and local factors, including the government's tax changes aimed at supporting household disposable income and consumption. On the domestic front, investors viewed the July labor market data, which showed the highest wage growth this year, neutrally, despite a slight slowdown in industry and a 2.4% drop in construction output.
Key points
- The USD/PLN fell to 3.6924 zł on Thursday, the lowest level since mid-June.
- The EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1700, testing a three-month high.
- The US Treasury announced a plan to increase the scale of buying long-term bonds to curb rising yields on US debt.
- July inflation in the Eurozone accelerated to 2.9% year-on-year.
- The Swiss franc fell to 4.6264 zł and the British pound dropped to 5.0318 zł.
Timeline
The EUR/PLN pair traded around 4.3170 zł.
The USD/PLN reached its lowest level since then.
The EUR/USD pair hit its highest level since then.
“Oczekujemy zatem zejścia EUR/PLN w okolice 4,31 oraz próby przełamania przez USD/PLN linii średnioterminowego trendu wzrostowego, przebiegającej w pobliżu 3,69 zł”
Background
The US Treasury is buying long-term bonds to limit the rise in yields on US debt, which is interpreted as a factor weakening the dollar.
Why it matters
The weakening dollar and positive tax reforms are boosting the Polish zloty, which is also supported by strong wage growth data.
What's next
Analysts expect the EUR/PLN to fall to 4.31 and the USD/PLN to break its rising trend near 3.69 zł.