Wzrost cen żywności przyjdzie z opóźnieniem. Czeka nas "szok kosztowy"
Summary
Poland is experiencing a rare deflation in food prices, with GUS reporting a 2% drop in May and June, driven by a price war between Biedronka and Lidl that pushed butter below 1 zł. Jakub Olipra of Credit Agricole Bank Polska notes that while current price drops are temporary, a significant cost shock is expected in 2027 due to rising fertilizer costs linked to the Persian Gulf conflict and a rebound in raw material prices. The analyst warns that the current low price base, combined with expected increases in pork and dairy prices, will likely trigger a broad-based price recovery next year.
Key points
- GUS recorded a 2% drop in food prices in May and June, with significant decreases in fruits, vegetables, meat, sugar, and dairy.
- A price war between Biedronka and Lidl drove butter prices below 1 zł, prompting UOKiK to warn about cross-subsidization strategies.
- Jakub Olipra forecasts a 'clear price rebound' in 2027, driven by rising fertilizer costs from the Persian Gulf conflict.
- The analyst expects fourth-quarter dairy and pork prices to rise as raw material markets exit their current price troughs.
- The projected 2027 price increase will be broad-based, amplified by the low price base of the current year.
Timeline
GUS reports a 2% drop in food prices.
Biedronka and Lidl engage in a price war, driving butter below 1 zł.
Prices for dairy and pork are expected to begin rising.
A broad-based cost shock and price rebound is forecast.
“Cena masła poniżej 1 zł czy obecne około 2 zł za kostkę nie pokrywa kosztów produkcji. Silna rywalizacja cenowa sieci handlowych to niepomijalny czynnik tłumaczący presję na spadek cen żywności — mówi Jakub Olipra.”
Background
The current deflation in food prices is largely attributed to a price war between major Polish discount chains.
Why it matters
The projected 2027 price rebound could significantly impact household budgets as the low price base of 2026 is taken into account.
What's next
Analysts expect the first signs of a price increase to appear in the fourth quarter of 2026, specifically in dairy and pork.