What to know about Brazil’s 2026 presidential election
Brazil's 2026 presidential election will see incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva face a tight race against right-wing challenger Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a deeply polarized political climate marked by corruption scandals and concerns about US intervention.
For the second election in a row, Brazilian voters face a choice between leftist candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and a right-wing candidate from the Bolsonaro family. The country's fractious election is set to take place during a wave of successful far-right candidates across Latin America and a sensitive time in Brazil's modern political history.
Former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence over his role in a coup plot following his loss to Lula in 2022. The conviction of Jair Bolsonaro and several military officers raised questions about the resilience of Brazilian democracy, revived several decades ago following a period of rule by a United States-backed military dictatorship.
The first round of voting in the Brazilian presidential election will take place on October 4 from 8am to 5pm Brasilia time (11:00 to 20:00 GMT). If no candidate wins the first round outright, the top two candidates will proceed to a run-off vote on October 25.
Candidates and Their Platforms
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, better known simply as Lula, is the country's current president and the candidate for the Workers' Party, or the PT. The 80-year-old has been a central figure in Brazilian politics for decades, serving two four-year presidential terms between 2003 and 2011, and his current term, which began in 2023.
Flavio Bolsonaro has emerged as the heir to his father's status as leader of Brazil's political right and Lula's main challenger in the 2026 election. Bolsonaro is running as the candidate of the right-wing Liberal Party. The 45-year-old is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
He has come to embody the institutionalisation and consolidation of Brazilian democracy since the end of the dictatorship.
Dominant Issues in the Campaign
Crime, insecurity and cost of living issues have dominated the Brazilian election. Corruption and concerns about US intervention in the country's domestic affairs have also loomed over the campaign.
A Quaest survey from September 7 found that 31 percent of respondents cited violence as their biggest concern, followed by 20 percent who said corruption, 19 percent who said the economy, and 12 percent who said health.
While Brazil has seen decent economic growth and low unemployment and inflation during Lula's third term, those mild gains have been paired with explosive levels of household debt and concerns about the rising cost of living.
A report from the Center for Economic and Policy Research found that extreme poverty in Brazil fell by about 40 percent between 2022 and 2024. Unemployment dropped to historic lows, and the country's economic growth significantly outpaced that of most of its neighbours.
Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged a hard stance on crime and insecurity and close collaboration with the administration of US President Donald Trump, which has designated several criminal groups in Brazil as terrorist organisations.
He has also promised to rein in inflation and government spending, with an adviser stating that he would implement a debt ceiling if elected.
Polls Show Close Race
Polls suggest Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro are in a virtual tie in a simulated run-off. A Quaest survey from September shows Lula with 37 percent of voter intention against Flavio Bolsonaro's 33 percent.
An AtlasIntel survey from the same period showed Lula winning 46 percent to Flavio Bolsonaro's 43 percent. A Datafolha poll found Lula with 40 percent and Flavio Bolsonaro with 36 percent.
Analysts say that polls reflect the state of Brazilian politics: deeply polarised but unenthusiastic. Andre Pagliarini described the campaign as having a very downbeat vibe with not a lot of enthusiasm either way.
Polls also show Flavio Bolsonaro favoured over Lula on issues of inflation, combatting corruption, and crime and drug trafficking, while Lula is seen more favourably on issues of poverty and inequality, foreign affairs and health.
Corruption Scandal and US Intervention Concerns
An explosive corruption scandal, focused on disgraced banker Daniel Vorcaro, has raised questions for both campaigns and implicated members of the country's political and economic elite across the political spectrum.
Reports found that Flavio Bolsonaro had solicited substantial funds from Vorcaro, ostensibly to finance a documentary about his father. Lula's former finance minister, Guido Mantega, has also said he helped arrange a meeting with Vorcaro, Lula and the head of Brazil's central bank to discuss banking policy.
Concerns that the Trump administration could intervene or seek to influence the outcome on behalf of Bolsonaro have also loomed over the election. The US president has frequently threatened to cut off economic assistance to Latin American countries if his preferred candidate fails to win.
Trump had also used sanctions to target members of the Brazilian judiciary involved in the case against the elder Bolsonaro, which he portrayed as a 'witch-hunt'. Trump also placed heavy tariffs on Brazil in a bid to have the case thrown out.
I ask God for the opportunity to walk up the ramp of Planalto Palace next year alongside President Jair Messias Bolsonaro, so that he may place the presidential sash across my chest.
The Bolsonaro family's pitch is that the institutions that Brazilian democracy has erected since the end of dictatorship are either rotten and unresponsive, and that we need a sharp turn away from this status quo.
